I.N.D.I.A. 4, NDA 3: Five Key Takeaways from Bypoll Results In Six States Ahead Of 2024

Bypoll Results: The recent bypolls held for seven seats in six states have thrown up mixed results, which were declared on September 8. These were the first elections since the formation of the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (I.N.D.I.A.) by Opposition parties and a rebranded National Development Alliance (NDA) was created by the BJP. The I.N.D.I.A. bloc won four seats while the NDA won three, with no change in the overall tally. However, the results show some interesting trends and send out key messages ahead of the general elections to be held in 2024. 

Of the total seven seats, five were retained by the incumbent party. Among the other two seats, the BJP wrested Boxanagar (Tripura) from the CPM, but lost the Dhupguri seat in West Bengal to the ruling TMC.

5 Key Takeaways From The Bypoll Verdict

1. Tripura: BJP Gets 1st Muslim MLA, Little Of Left Remains 

In Boxanagar seat of Tripura, the CPM and the BJP were locked in a direct contest after the death of the Left MLA, Samsul Haque in July this year. The BJP achieved a significant milestone in Tripura's political landscape as the party got its first MLA from the Muslim community. Party candidate Tafajjal Hossain won the seat by over 30,000 votes. He had lost the seat by a whisker, less than 5,000 votes, six months ago. 

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been emphasising to the BJP cadre the need to make an outreach to the marginalised sections of society. The results show slow and steady progress made by these efforts. Also, the results further weaken the Left Front in Tripura, once its bastion. The CPM is now a major force only in Kerala. 

2. West Bengal: Dhupguri Result May Redraw State Alliances Ahead Of 2024

In Dhupguri, which fell vacant after the death of BJP's Bishnupada Roy, the TMC, the BJP and the CPM locked horns, with the Congress backing the CPM candidate. So two parties from the I.N.D.I.A. bloc contested this seat. Contrary to popular perception that unity of all the three forces (TMC, Congress, Left) is a must to defeat the BJP in the state, the results show that the TMC benefitted from a triangular contest.

The TMC won the seat by 4,300 votes, with the CPM polling more than 13,000 votes, holding onto its strength. The decades old CPM-TMC rivalry means the CPM along with the BJP gets a portion of the anti-TMC or anti-Mamata Banerjee votes. The Left also gets some minority community votes, which would otherwise go to the TMC if it doesn’t contest. 

However, if all three join hands, the TMC may stand to lose more than it gains as all the anti-TMC vote would then get consolidated in favour of the BJP. Polarisation always helps the BJP, research has shown. So we could see friendly fights in Bengal from the I.N.D.I.A. bloc. 

3. UP: BSP Has A Message For I.N.D.I.A. 

In the most high-pitch battle among the seven bypolls, the SP managed to retain the seat vacated by the ghar-wapsi of Dara Singh Chauhan to the BJP. Dara Singh Chauhan’s re-entry along with OP Rajbhar’s return to the NDA fold was expected to give a boost to the BJP’s prospects in Purvanchal where the party suffered losses in 2019 Lok Sabha elections and 2022 state polls. 

Chauhan, a BJP heavyweight and former OBC Morcha president, had left the BJP ahead of the 2022 state elections. After the BJP’s comeback at state level, he re-joined the party hoping to get back in power. He has been a big party hopper all his life, moving from the Congress to the SP to the BSP to the BJP to the SP to the BJP again, and voters seem to have shown mirror to these breed of politicians. 

The BSP did not contest, the party has 20-35% vote share in this seat over the elections since 2002. The seat has a good number of minority and Dalit population (40%-45%). BSP had put up a minority candidate in 2022, and his votes seem to have got transferred to the SP candidate largely. Mayawati seems to have a covert message for the I.N.D.I.A. block — that it can gain strength if the BSP is included. A bipolar contest in 2024 could go either way. She could still join the bloc if a good bargain is given to her, else could split the opposition/anti-BJP vote in 2024.

UP's Ghosi was the only seat in this round of bypolls where it was a direct NDA vs I.N.D.I.A. contest. 

4. Sympathy Factor Still Works, Mostly 

Five of the bypolls — Dhupguri, Puthuppally, Bageshwar, Dumri and Boxanagar — were necessitated due to the death of the sitting MLAs. In Ghosi and Dhanpur, their MLAs' resignation led to fresh polls. Samajwadi Party's Dara Singh Chauhan had resigned as MLA in Ghoshi and re-joined the BJP. In Dhanpur, BJP's Pratima Bhoumik had resigned to retain her Lok Sabha seat, which left the assembly seat vacant. 

Generally, in bypolls necessitated by death, the deceased’s party enjoys sympathy and the seat is retained by the party. Of the five seats, this trend was maintained in three seats as the incumbent party put up family members of the deceased as their candidate.

5. Trend Of Ruling Party Having An Advantage In Bypolls Holds Good 

It has been a trend that party in power generally wins in such bypolls because of the administrative control. Also, since these seat elections have no bearing on the power situation in the states, these tend to get very hyperlocal. In five of the seven seats, this trend was maintained. Only in Kerala and UP, the seats were won by opposition parties — the Congress and the SP, respectively.

To sum up, the state election results may not have a significant impact on the Lok Sabha elections to be held next year, as the context and character of polls are different. However, since these polls were held very close to the general elections, the underlying themes cannot be ignored altogether.

The author is a political commentator and SEBI-registered investment advisor.

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