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This Giant Asteroid Heading Towards Earth Is Top On NASA-ESA Risk List — All About 2024 YR4

NASA and ESA are monitoring asteroid 2024 YR4, with an estimated size of up to 328 feet and a 1.2% chance of impacting Earth.

Space agencies are closely monitoring a newly discovered asteroid, 2024 YR4, which has a probability of colliding with Earth in some years from now, according to assessments from NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA). The agencies have said their scientists will continue tracking its trajectory to refine impact predictions with future observations. 

The possible date of the impact is December 22, 2032, and its probability is 1.2%, which means there is a nearly 99% chance that the asteroid may safely bypass our planet. 

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All About 2024 YR4

The asteroid's size is estimated to be between 131 and 328 feet (40 to 100 metres) in diameter. According to the ESA, space rocks of this scale hit Earth only once every few thousand years but have the potential to cause significant regional damage if they do.

The near-Earth asteroid, hence, has been on the top of ESA’s asteroid risk list ever since it was discovered on December 27, 2024, at the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) telescope in Chile's Río Hurtado.

Since early January, ESA said, astronomers have been making follow-up observations on priority, using telescopes installed around the world, "and using the new data to improve our understanding of the asteroid’s size and trajectory".

In the past, several objects have appeared on risk lists only to be removed later as new data became available. Similarly, NASA says, additional observations may eventually lead to asteroid 2024 YR4 being downgraded to Level 0 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale.  

Currently, asteroid 2024 YR4 is rated at Level 3, indicating a close encounter that merits attention from both astronomers and the public. It's important to note that an asteroid’s impact probability often increases initially before dropping to zero once more observations refine its trajectory. 

What’s Next For 2024 YR4?  

Asteroid 2024 YR4 is estimated to be larger than 50 metres and currently has an impact probability exceeding 1% at some point within the next 50 years. Because of this, it meets the criteria to trigger action from two UN-endorsed groups: the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) and the Space Mission Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG).  

Dr. Paul Chodas, director for the Center for Near Earth Object Studies, at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California, has said astronomers are trying to determine the actual size of this asteroid, which is highly uncertain at the moment. It has a “size range comparable to that of a large building,” he told CNN. 

Chodas said the impact "could produce blast damage as far as 50 kilometers (31 miles) from the impact site" if the space rock matched its estimated size range or turned out to be on the large end of it. “But that’s in the unlikely event that it might impact at all. The potential for damage arises because of the incredibly high speed (about 17 kilometers per second, or 38,028 miles per hour) at which the asteroid would enter the atmosphere.”

According to ESA, The asteroid follows an elongated (eccentric) orbit around the Sun. At present, it is moving away from Earth in nearly a straight line, making it difficult to precisely determine its path based on its trajectory over time.  

Over the next few months, the asteroid will begin to fade from view. During this period, ESA will coordinate a series of increasingly powerful telescope observations, culminating in a study using the European Southern Observatory’s Very Large Telescope in Chile to collect as much data as possible.  

If asteroid 2024 YR4 becomes unobservable before a definitive impact risk assessment for 2032 can be made, it may remain on ESA’s risk list until it becomes visible again in 2028.

Davide Farnocchia, navigation engineer at CNEOS and JPL, told CNN that the future position of an asteroid can be predicted using the available tracking data. “The longer we track an asteroid, the more precise the prediction. As we collect additional data, the uncertainty in the position of 2024 YR4 in 2032 will decrease," he said, adding: "Given that the impact probability is only 1%, it is 99% likely that the Earth will eventually fall outside the swath of possible positions and that the probability would fall to zero.”

According to NASA, no other asteroids known to be large in size currently have more than a 1% chance of colliding with Earth.

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